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Conference Board of Canada predicts Sask. growth in 2010

Source: The StarPhoenix, Business, November 13, 2009, Bruce Johnstone, Regina Leader Post.
Saskatchewan's economy will contract by 2.6 per cent in 2009, but will bounce back with 3.7 per cent growth in 2010 -- second-highest among the provinces -- according to the latest forecast by the Conference Board of Canada.

The only caveat is that the main cause of this year's recession -- plunging potash production -- may not recover sufficiently to turn the economy around next year, the Ottawa-based economic forecaster said.

With a strong rebound in potash production, Saskatchewan's economy will grow faster than any other province in 2010, except B.C. at 4.2 per cent, the Conference Board said.

Meanwhile, Saskatchewan's exports are forecast to increase by one per cent in 2010, after dropping by 29 per cent in 2009, led by the mining and energy sector, according to a provincial export outlook by Export Development Canada (EDC).

Exports of crude and petroleum products for this year and next are expected to be depressed, with reduced output of heavy oil offsetting higher production of light crude. The forecast growth in export values of four per cent in 2010 will be led by a modest increase in the price of oil.

Potash exports, which have been halved on an annual basis this year, are expected to rebound in 2010 as buyers return to the market. But that rebound is by no means assured.

The province's second-largest export sector, agrifood -- accounting for one-third of exports -- is expected to decline by three per cent in 2010. Lower meat and livestock production, combined with a weaker crop this fall, is expected to constrain total export growth to only one per cent next year.

Canadian exports are forecast to contract 23 per cent in 2009, before rebounding six per cent in 2010, EDC said.

You can read the entire article here... http://www.thestarphoenix.com/business/Economy+will+rebound+report/2218092/story.html


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